Wind stilling-reversal across Sweden: The impact of land-use and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes,International Journal of Climatology

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Wind stilling-reversal across Sweden: The impact of land-use and large-scale atmospheric circulation changes
International Journal of Climatology ( IF 3.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-08 , DOI: 10.1002/joc.7289
Lorenzo Minola ₁ , Heather Reese ₂ , Hui‐Wen Lai ₁ , Cesar Azorin‐Molina ₃ , Jose A. Guijarro ₄ , Seok‐Woo Son ₅ , Deliang Chen ₁

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This study analyses for the first time the break in the stilling detected by previous research around 2010, with focus in Sweden using homogenized near-surface mean and gust wind speed observations for 1997–2019. During the recent past two decades, both mean and gust wind magnitude and frequency (exceeding the 90th percentile) underwent nonlinear changes, driven by the dominant winter variability. In particular, consistent with previous studies, the significant (p < .05) stilling ceased in 2003, followed by no clear trend afterwards. The detected stilling-reversal is linked to large-scale atmospheric circulation changes, in particular to the North Atlantic Oscillation for both mean and gust wind changes, and the intensity changes of extratropical cyclones passing across Sweden especially for wind gusts. Furthermore, in different wind change phases, the observed wind distribution did not vary uniformly for the various wind speed ranges; instead, strong winds drove most of the changes. In the same way, increases in gust winds are greater compared to changes in mean wind speed conditions. The stilling-reversal is also identified by the ERA5 reanalysis, where large-scale atmospheric circulation changes are captured. But the background slowdown detected in most stations does not appear in the ERA5 data as the observed increase in forest cover is not considered in the reanalysis. This study reveals that, in addition to the large-scale interannual variability, changes in surface roughness (e.g., changes in forest cover) contribute to the observed wind variability across Sweden.

中文翻译：

整个瑞典的风静止-逆转：土地利用和大规模大气环流变化的影响

这项研究首次分析了 2010 年左右之前的研究检测到的静止状态的中断，重点是瑞典使用 1997-2019 年的均质近地表平均和阵风风速观测。在过去的二十年里，平均和阵风的大小和频率（超过 90 个百分位）都经历了非线性变化，这是由主要的冬季变率驱动的。特别是，与以前的研究一致，显着的 ( p < .05) 静止在 2003 年停止，之后没有明显的趋势。检测到的静止反转与大规模的大气环流变化有关，特别是与平均风和阵风变化的北大西洋涛动，以及穿越瑞典的温带气旋的强度变化，尤其是阵风的强度变化有关。此外，在不同的风变阶段，观测到的风分布在不同的风速范围内变化并不均匀；相反，强风推动了大部分变化。同样，与平均风速条件的变化相比，阵风的增加更大。ERA5 再分析也确定了静止反转，其中捕获了大规模的大气环流变化。但在 ERA5 数据中没有出现在大多数站点中检测到的背景减速，因为在再分析中没有考虑到观察到的森林覆盖增加。这项研究表明，除了大尺度的年际变率外，地表粗糙度的变化（例如，森林覆盖率的变化）也有助于在瑞典观测到的风变率。

更新日期：2021-07-08

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