How do self-determination groups move toward diplomatic recognition? Although recognition is the dominant activity used to understand international sovereignty, it is perhaps the most costly decision states make towards these groups. Third parties have many substantial interactions with aspiring states, building their sovereignty by other important means. I argue that our understanding of international sovereignty can be improved by conceptualizing it as a dynamic, continuous process, reflected in foreign policy decisions short of the legal recognition. I create a Bayesian latent variable model of international sovereignty, using bilateral data on diplomatic exchange, IGO voting, sanctions, military aid, and intervention in separatist conflicts. Complementing prior work on international sovereignty, my measure provides support for important theoretical expectations previously explored using only recognition as a measure of sovereignty. I find that diplomatic recognition, extant violence, separatist victory, and sour third-party–incumbent relations positively impact latent sovereignty of separatists, while concern for precedent negatively impacts it.

中文翻译：

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持续承认：衡量自决运动国际主权的潜在变量方法

自决团体如何走向外交承认？尽管承认是用于理解国际主权的主要活动，但它可能是国家对这些群体做出的最昂贵的决定。第三方与有抱负的国家有许多实质性的互动，通过其他重要手段建立自己的主权。我认为，我们可以通过将国际主权概念化为一个动态的、持续的过程来提高我们对国际主权的理解，这反映在没有法律承认的外交政策决定中。我创建了国际主权的贝叶斯潜在变量模型，使用有关外交交流、IGO 投票、制裁、军事援助和分离主义冲突干预的双边数据。补充先前关于国际主权的工作，我的衡量标准为之前仅使用承认作为主权衡量标准所探讨的重要理论期望提供了支持。我发现外交承认、现存暴力、分裂主义胜利以及第三方与现任关系恶化对分裂分子的潜在主权产生积极影响，而对先例的关注则对其产生负面影响。