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An initialisation scheme for tropical cyclones in the South China Sea
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society ( IF 3.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-07 , DOI: 10.1002/qj.4118 Huang Yanyan 1 , Yerong Feng 1 , Guangfeng Dai 1 , Chengzhong Zhang 1 , Bin Zheng 1
Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society ( IF 3.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-07 , DOI: 10.1002/qj.4118 Huang Yanyan 1 , Yerong Feng 1 , Guangfeng Dai 1 , Chengzhong Zhang 1 , Bin Zheng 1
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We propose an initialisation scheme for weak tropical cyclones (TCs) in the South China Sea (SCS) by combining composite and analysis vortices to improve forecasts of weak TCs in the region. The composite vortex is obtained from good samples of analyses of TCs in the SCS, and the analysis vortex is obtained from either European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) analysis data or an operational assimilation system. The new scheme has been applied to 57 cases of weak TCs, and the effect on the forecasting of four tropical storms has been studied in detail. It can be concluded that the proposed scheme can reduce track errors and intensity errors of weak TCs, compared with the control experiment. The possible reasons for these results are investigated in a case study for Linfa. Results of batch experiments show that the new method significantly improves TC track forecasting of tropical storms, severe tropical storms and typhoons, and demonstrates significant advantages in forecasting intensity of tropical storms, compared with the control experiment. It also performs better in predicting intensity of TCs in the SCS compared with ECMWF Atmospheric Model high resolution.
中文翻译：
南海热带气旋初始化方案
我们提出了南海（SCS）弱热带气旋（TC）的初始化方案，通过组合涡旋和分析涡旋来改进对该地区弱热带气旋（TC）的预报。复合涡流是从 SCS 中 TC 分析的良好样本中获得的，而分析涡流是从欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) 分析数据或业务同化系统中获得的。新方案已应用于57个弱TC实例，并详细研究了对4个热带风暴预报的影响。可以得出结论，与控制实验相比，所提出的方案可以减少弱TC的轨道误差和强度误差。在 Linfa 的案例研究中调查了这些结果的可能原因。批量实验结果表明，与对照实验相比，新方法显着提高了热带风暴、强热带风暴和台风的TC轨迹预报，在热带风暴强度预报方面具有显着优势。与 ECMWF 大气模型高分辨率相比，它在预测 SCS 中的 TC 强度方面也表现更好。
更新日期：2021-09-06
中文翻译：
南海热带气旋初始化方案
我们提出了南海（SCS）弱热带气旋（TC）的初始化方案，通过组合涡旋和分析涡旋来改进对该地区弱热带气旋（TC）的预报。复合涡流是从 SCS 中 TC 分析的良好样本中获得的，而分析涡流是从欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) 分析数据或业务同化系统中获得的。新方案已应用于57个弱TC实例，并详细研究了对4个热带风暴预报的影响。可以得出结论，与控制实验相比，所提出的方案可以减少弱TC的轨道误差和强度误差。在 Linfa 的案例研究中调查了这些结果的可能原因。批量实验结果表明，与对照实验相比，新方法显着提高了热带风暴、强热带风暴和台风的TC轨迹预报，在热带风暴强度预报方面具有显着优势。与 ECMWF 大气模型高分辨率相比，它在预测 SCS 中的 TC 强度方面也表现更好。
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