We estimate a risk-based programming, individual farm model and apply it to study the wealth effects of crop-related, decoupled direct payments under the European Union (EU) Common Agricultural Policy. The model expands on previous work on estimating risk-based programming models by applying a robust Bayesian econometric framework. The results indicate that the wealth effect varies greatly between individual farms, but that its impact on aggregate crop production is small. For larger farms, in particular, removing the decoupled payments, while keeping total land constant, increases the diversity of the cropping plan.

中文翻译：

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用于分析欧盟解耦支付影响的贝叶斯计量经济学和风险规划方法*

我们估计了一个基于风险的规划、个体农场模型，并将其应用于研究欧盟 (EU) 共同农业政策下与作物相关的、脱钩的直接支付的财富效应。该模型通过应用稳健的贝叶斯计量经济学框架，扩展了之前在基于风险的规划模型估计方面的工作。结果表明，财富效应在各个农场之间差异很大，但对作物总产量的影响很小。特别是对于较大的农场，取消分离支付，同时保持总土地不变，增加了种植计划的多样性。