Land degradation is a major global issue and achieving a land degradation-neutral world is one of the Sustainable Development Goals. However, striving for land degradation neutrality (LDN) is challenged by increasing claims on land resources and could result in major land use conflicts. The aim of this study is to demonstrate how LDN can be implemented in land system modelling and how achieving LDN alongside sufficient supplies of food, timber and shelter could affect future land system patterns, using the Republic of Turkey as a case study. We developed a LDN scenario with full implementation of the guidelines and a business-as-usual scenario without pursuing LDN, and compared the resulting differences in land system changes. Additionally, the influence of different elements of the LDN framework on the land use projections was tested. Our results show that although it is possible to achieve LDN in the context of increasing demands for resources and housing, it might require a considerable re-organization of the land systems. Intensification of annual cropland systems was the main driver of new land degradation, which was in the LDN scenario primarily counterbalanced by large areas of afforestation, while other land improvement options only played a minor role. To achieve a no-net-loss, about 20% of Turkey’s territory was afforested in our scenario, mainly claiming extensively used annual cropland (∼70%) and grassland (∼30%). All individual LDN principles had a substantial impact on the final land system patterns meaning that the final outcome is not the result of just one of the principles, it is affected by all. Our findings suggest that pursuing LDN under growing demands for land-based products could stimulate a land sparing approach which might have trade-offs with other sustainability dimensions. This highlights the need for local support and new solutions for rural areas, thereby avoiding poverty, migration and illegal use of restoration areas.

土地退化是一个重大的全球问题，实现土地退化零增长的世界是可持续发展目标之一。然而，争取土地退化零增长 (LDN) 受到对土地资源日益增加的要求的挑战，并可能导致重大的土地使用冲突。本研究的目的是展示如何在土地系统建模中实施 LDN，以及实现 LDN 以及充足的食物、木材和住所供应如何影响未来的土地系统模式，以土耳其共和国为案例研究。我们开发了一个完全实施指南的 LDN 场景和一个不追求 LDN 的一切照旧的场景，并比较了土地系统变化的结果差异。此外，还测试了 LDN 框架的不同元素对土地利用预测的影响。我们的结果表明，尽管在对资源和住房需求不断增加的背景下实现 LDN 是可能的，但它可能需要对土地系统进行大量重组。一年生农田系统的集约化是新土地退化的主要驱动因素，在 LDN 情景中，这主要被大面积的植树造林所抵消，而其他土地改良方案只发挥了次要作用。为了实现零净损失，在我们的情景中，土耳其约有 20% 的领土被绿化，主要是广泛使用的一年生农田（~70%）和草地（~30%）。所有单独的 LDN 原则对最终的土地系统模式都有重大影响，这意味着最终结果不仅仅是其中一项原则的结果，而是受所有原则的影响。我们的研究结果表明，在对陆基产品不断增长的需求下追求 LDN 可能会刺激土地节约方法，这可能会与其他可持续性维度进行权衡。这凸显了农村地区需要地方支持和新的解决方案，从而避免贫困、移民和非法使用恢复区。