In the context of industrial-era global change, Mediterranean coastal areas are threatened by relative sea level (RSL) rise. Shifts in the drivers of coastal dynamics are forecasted to trigger changes in the frequency of flooding of low-lying areas, with significant effects on marine-coastal environments, societies, economy and urban systems. Here, we probe coastal floods in the eastern part of the Gulf of Venice (coastal Croatia) to understand the drivers of saltwater intrusions. We reconstructed RSL rise in the north-eastern Adriatic during the Holocene based on 43 RSL index points and analyzed the evolution of coastal submersions on the Istrian Peninsula for the last 5200 years based on inputs of marine components and increases in supratidal scrubs. We produced pollen-based climate reconstructions to analyze the potential effects of air temperature and precipitation changes on submersions. We investigated the response of precipitation and temperature to mid-late Holocene summer/winter insolation forcing and insolation-induced changes in sea surface temperatures (SSTs). We found that during periods of warmer SST, coastal flooding increased markedly. This process seems to have been initiated by warmer atmospheric temperatures that led to increases in summer evaporation, counterbalancing the effects of heavy precipitation during winter. As a result, freshwater flows into coastal areas were reduced and resulted in recurrent inputs of saltwater inland. Our study suggests that present-day climate drivers (increases in SSTs and air temperatures, and decreases in precipitation) will probably favour frequent coastal flooding, a process that will be amplified by RSL rise.

在工业时代全球变化的背景下，地中海沿岸地区受到相对海平面 (RSL) 上升的威胁。预计沿海动态驱动因素的变化将引发低洼地区洪水频率的变化，对海洋-沿海环境、社会、经济和城市系统产生重大影响。在这里，我们调查了威尼斯湾东部（克罗地亚沿海）的沿海洪水，以了解海水入侵的驱动因素。我们根据 43 个 RSL 指数点重建了全新世亚得里亚海东北部的 RSL 上升，并根据海洋成分的输入和潮上灌木的增加分析了过去 5200 年伊斯特拉半岛沿海淹没的演变。我们进行了基于花粉的气候重建，以分析气温和降水变化对淹没的潜在影响。我们研究了降水和温度对全新世中晚期夏季/冬季日照强迫和日照引起的海面温度 (SST) 变化的响应。我们发现，在海温较高的时期，沿海洪水明显增加。这一过程似乎是由大气温度升高引起的，导致夏季蒸发量增加，抵消了冬季强降水的影响。结果，流入沿海地区的淡水减少，导致内陆海水反复输入。我们的研究表明，当今的气候驱动因素（SST 和气温升高，