ABSTRACT

This paper constructs a large-scale computable general equilibrium model with 26 countries and regions. The model is embedded in the global value chain, trade costs are introduced, and the trade effects of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP) and the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement (CPTPP) under three different scenarios are simulated and analyzed. The simulation results show that in the context of superimposed consideration of the global value chain and the “spaghetti bowl” effect, the trade promotion effect of RCEP and CPTPP on member states has declined. The trade effect of some members may still be impaired, but at the same time, the trade agreement’s “exclusive effect” will also decline. Becoming a joint member of RCEP and CPTPP will result in greater benefits than joining only one trade agreement or not joining a trade agreement. Therefore, it is valuable to speed up the construction of a trade agreement network. When the spaghetti bowl effect is not taken into consideration, the trade promotion effects of RCEP and CPTPP are more prominent than when the spaghetti bowl effect is considered. For nonmembers, regardless of the situation, joining a trade agreement can result in greater benefits.

摘要

本文构建了一个包含26个国家和地区的大规模可计算一般均衡模型。模型嵌入全球价值链，引入贸易成本，模拟分析区域全面经济伙伴关系协定（RCEP）和全面进步跨太平洋伙伴关系协定（CPTPP）在三种不同情景下的贸易效应. 模拟结果表明，在全球价值链和“意大利面碗”效应叠加考虑的背景下，RCEP和CPTPP对成员国的贸易促进作用有所下降。部分成员的贸易效应可能仍会受损，但与此同时，贸易协定的“排他效应”也会下降。成为 RCEP 和 CPTPP 的联合成员将比只加入一个贸易协定或不加入贸易协定带来更大的好处。因此，加快贸易协定网络建设具有重要意义。在不考虑意大利面条碗效应的情况下，RCEP和CPTPP的贸易促进作用比考虑意大利面条碗效应时更为突出。对于非成员而言，无论情况如何，加入贸易协定都能带来更大的利益。