ABSTRACT

This paper extends previous literature that investigates the impact of crude oil prices on US gasoline prices using a structural vector autoregressive model of the global crude oil market. In particular, we disentangle the global oil production into non-US and US oil production and we examine whether real gasoline prices respond to non-US and US oil supply shocks using monthly data from October 1973 to February 2018. It shows that non-US (US) oil supply disruptions generate nonsignificant (significantly positive) effects on the real price of oil and real price of gasoline. The effect of non-US (US) oil supply shocks on the real price of gasoline has been declining (rising) over time.

摘要

本文扩展了之前的文献，这些文献使用全球原油市场的结构向量自回归模型来研究原油价格对美国汽油价格的影响。特别是，我们将全球石油产量分为非美国和美国石油产量，并使用 1973 年 10 月至 2018 年 2 月的月度数据检查实际汽油价格是否对非美国和美国石油供应冲击做出反应。 （美国）石油供应中断对石油的实际价格和汽油的实际价格产生不显着（显着积极）的影响。随着时间的推移，非美国（美国）石油供应冲击对汽油实际价格的影响一直在下降（上升）。