当前位置: X-MOL 学术Pure Appl. Geophys. › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Tsunami Modeling in the South American Subduction Zone Inferred from Seismic Coupling and Historical Seismicity
Pure and Applied Geophysics ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-07 , DOI: 10.1007/s00024-021-02808-w
Miguel Medina 1 , Mauricio Fuentes 1 , Jaime Campos 1 , Sebastián Riquelme 2
Affiliation  

Throughout its history, South America has experienced megathrust earthquakes which have produced large tsunamis, devastating coastal cities in the near and far field. Studying these phenomena is important for tsunami hazard mitigation in this region. We propose 10 earthquake scenarios along the South American subduction zone on the basis of the seismic history of each region, seismic-geodetic coupling, general scaling relationships, among others. Tsunami run-up (coastal amplification) is then estimated using 200 nonuniform stochastic sources for each scenario, totaling 2000 simulations. Our results show great variability in run-up distribution along the Nazca-South America subduction zone, with some of the most affected areas being Valparaiso in Chile, with a most likely scenario of 20 m of run-up and a maximum scenario of 33 m; and Lima in Peru, with 25 and 40 m for the most likely and maximum scenarios, respectively. Similar results are seen in Iquique and Huasco in Chile. We have also identified 17 coastal locations with a higher vulnerability due to local amplification of tsunami run-up and two instances in which a regional amplification can occur due to tsunami directivity and coastal barriers. We conclude that tsunami hazard remains high along the coast of South America, even in areas where great earthquakes have recently occurred.



中文翻译:

从地震耦合和历史地震活动推断的南美俯冲带海啸建模

纵观其历史,南美洲经历了特大地震,这些地震产生了巨大的海啸,对近场和远场的沿海城市造成了毁灭性的破坏。研究这些现象对于减轻该地区的海啸灾害很重要。我们根据每个地区的地震历史、地震-大地测量耦合、一般尺度关系等,提出了沿南美俯冲带的 10 个地震情景。然后对每个情景使用 200 个非均匀随机源估计海啸上升(沿海放大),总计 2000 次模拟。我们的结果显示,沿纳斯卡-南美洲俯冲带的助跑分布存在很大差异,其中一些受影响最严重的地区是智利的瓦尔帕莱索,最有可能的助爬高度为 20 m,最大假设为 33 m ; 和秘鲁的利马,对于最可能和最大的场景,分别为 25 和 40 m。智利的伊基克和瓦斯科也有类似的结果。我们还确定了 17 个由于海啸上升的局部放大而具有较高脆弱性的沿海地区,以及两个由于海啸方向性和沿海障碍而可能发生区域放大的实例。我们得出结论,即使在最近发生大地震的地区,南美洲沿岸的海啸危险仍然很高。

更新日期:2021-07-07
down
wechat
bug