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Continuity and catastrophic risk
Economics & Philosophy ( IF 1.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-07 , DOI: 10.1017/s0266267121000146
H. Orri Stefánsson 1
Affiliation  

Suppose that a decision-maker’s aim, under certainty, is to maximize some continuous value, such as lifetime income or continuous social welfare. Can such a decision-maker rationally satisfy what has been called ‘continuity for easy cases’ while at the same time satisfying what seems to be a widespread intuition against the full-blown continuity axiom of expected utility theory? In this note I argue that the answer is ‘no’: given transitivity and a weak trade-off principle, continuity for easy cases violates the anti-continuity intuition. I end the note by exploring an even weaker continuity condition that is consistent with the aforementioned intuition.



中文翻译:

连续性和灾难性风险

假设决策者的目标在确定性下是最大化某些连续价值,例如终生收入或连续社会福利。这样的决策者能否理性地满足所谓的“简单案例的连续性”,同时满足似乎是反对预期效用理论的成熟连续性公理的普遍直觉?在这篇笔记中,我认为答案是否定的:鉴于传递性和弱权衡原则,简单情况的连续性违反了反连续性直觉。我通过探索与上述直觉一致的更弱的连续性条件来结束注释。

更新日期:2021-07-07
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