Obtaining a viable schedule baseline that meets all project constraints is one of the main issues for project managers. The literature on this topic focuses mainly on methods to obtain schedules that meet resource restrictions and, more recently, financial limitations. The methods provide different viable schedules for the same project, and the solutions with the shortest duration are considered the best-known schedule for that project. However, no tools currently select which schedule best performs in project risk terms. To bridge this gap, this paper aims to propose a method for selecting the project schedule with the highest probability of meeting the deadline of several alternative schedules with the same duration. To do so, we propose integrating aleatory uncertainty into project scheduling by quantifying the risk of several execution alternatives for the same project. The proposed method, tested with a well-known repository for schedule benchmarking, can be applied to any project type to help managers to select the project schedules from several alternatives with the same duration, but the lowest risk.

获得满足所有项目约束的可行进度基准是项目经理面临的主要问题之一。关于这个主题的文献主要 集中在获得满足资源限制和最近的财务限制的时间表的方法。这些方法为同一项目提供了不同的可行时间表， 并且 持续时间最短的解决方案 被 认为是 该 项目最知名的时间表。但是，目前没有工具可以选择在项目风险方面表现最佳的时间表。为了弥补这种差距，本文 旨在提出一种方法 为 选择 最有可能在几个相同工期的备选时间表的最后期限前完成的项目时间表。为此 ，我们建议 通过 量化同一项目的多个执行备选方案的风险，将偶然的不确定性整合到项目调度中。所提出的方法，与进度基准知名库测试，可以适用于任何 项目类型，帮助管理者 来 选择项目进度 由 具有相同时间，几个备选方案 ，但风险最低。