Since Amartya Sen's famous work on Poverty and Famines, economists have understood that the impacts of food market shocks on the poor depend much more on their impacts on households’ incomes and access to food than on overall food availability, and that availability-based policies frequently exacerbate adverse impacts on household welfare. Perhaps because household-level impacts are not directly observable many policy makers have continued to rely on availability-oriented policies such as export bans. In the Zambia case considered in this article, export bans imposed in response to an El Niño event appear to have greatly exacerbated the small increase in poverty resulting from the weather shock. The combination of household-level data and crop models used in this article allows us to assess the impacts of weather and price shocks at the household level, and to evaluate the suitability of availability-based policies for dealing with weather shocks. These analytical techniques can also help identify the households and regions adversely affected, and design policies to improve poor consumers’ access to food.

中文翻译：

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从坏到坏：粮食供应对天气冲击的反应对贫困的影响

自从阿马蒂亚·森（Amartya Sen）关于贫困和饥荒的著名著作以来，经济学家已经明白，粮食市场冲击对穷人的影响更多地取决于他们对家庭收入和获得食物的影响，而不是整体粮食供应，而且基于供应的政策经常加剧对家庭福利的不利影响。也许是因为无法直接观察到家庭层面的影响，许多政策制定者继续依赖以可用性为导向的政策，例如出口禁令。在本文中考虑的赞比亚案例中，为应对厄尔尼诺现象而实施的出口禁令似乎大大加剧了因天气冲击而导致的贫困人口小幅增加。本文中使用的家庭层面数据和作物模型的结合使我们能够评估天气和价格冲击对家庭层面的影响，评估基于可用性的政策在应对天气冲击方面的适用性。这些分析技术还可以帮助确定受到不利影响的家庭和地区，并设计政策以改善贫困消费者获得食物的机会。