In this paper, we analyze the relationship between ISIS propaganda content and ISIS-inspired attacks by those outside of the group’s control. We examine the content of ISIS’ English language magazines, as well as speeches by two of its top leaders. We find that statements made about enemy countries in most contexts are not associated with a higher likelihood of violence in those countries. However, when a country is mentioned in ISIS propaganda in the context of its participation in the air campaign, this corresponds to an increased likelihood that the country will experience a violent attack. This suggests that propaganda highlighting key military adversaries may play a role in directing attackers that are outside the control of the organization’s hierarchy to the group’s preferred targets.

在本文中，我们分析了 ISIS 宣传内容与不受该组织控制的人发起的受 ISIS 启发的攻击之间的关系。我们检查了 ISIS 英语杂志的内容，以及其两位最高领导人的演讲。我们发现，在大多数情况下，关于敌国的言论与这些国家发生暴力的可能性更高无关。然而，当一个国家在参与空袭的背景下在 ISIS 的宣传中被提及时，这对应于该国遭受暴力袭击的可能性增加。这表明，强调关键军事对手的宣传可能会在将组织层级控制之外的攻击者引导至该组织的首选目标方面发挥作用。