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Compound precipitation and wind extremes over Europe and their relationship to extratropical cyclones
Weather and Climate Extremes ( IF 8 ) Pub Date : 2021-07-06 , DOI: 10.1016/j.wace.2021.100342
Laura E. Owen 1 , Jennifer L. Catto 1 , David B. Stephenson 1 , Nick J. Dunstone 2
Affiliation  

Extratropical cyclones and their associated extreme precipitation and winds can have a severe impact on society and the co-occurrence between the two extremes is important when assessing risk. In this study the extremal dependency measure, χ, is used to quantify the co-occurrence of extreme precipitation and wind gusts, and is investigated at individual grid points and spatially over Europe. Results using three observational datasets and a higher spatial and temporal resolution version of ERA5 than previously used confirm previous studies. Over Europe high co-occurrence is found over western coasts and low co-occurrence is found over eastern coasts. All datasets have qualitatively similar spatial patterns over most regions of Europe excluding some regions of high topography where ERA5 χ values are much larger. ERA5 represents the timings of daily extreme co-occurring events well, compared to observations. The differences in precipitation accumulation timescales are also accounted for by considering hourly, 6, 24 and 48 hourly co-occurrence. In a few regions co-occurrence changes with longer accumulations, indicating the different speeds and sizes of weather systems affecting these regions. χ in most regions has little increase by allowing a 24 h lag and lead between the precipitation and wind, with a few exceptions where χ is increased by up to 24%. Regions with the larger of these increases are on or around elevated topography. Using an objective feature tracking method, insight into the spatial pattern of extreme precipitation and wind within cyclones over Europe is given. As well as suggesting how many hours apart the extremes occur from one another in a particular location. Extreme co-occurring events are associated with cyclones far more of the time than non extreme events. Given an extreme co-occurring event the chance of a cyclone being within 1110 km is more than 70% for much of Europe. Regions with low co-occurrence have extremes caused by different weather systems and regions with large co-occurrence have both extremes caused by the same weather system. Cyclones linked to extreme events, particularly co-occurring and extreme wind, have larger intensity than those not and for most of Europe these cyclones also have faster mean speed.



中文翻译:

欧洲上空的复合降水和极端风及其与温带气旋的关系

温带气旋及其相关的极端降水和大风会对社会产生严重影响,在评估风险时,两个极端事件同时发生非常重要。在本研究中,极值依赖性测度,χ,用于量化极端降水和阵风的同时发生,并在单个网格点和欧洲空间上进行调查。使用三个观测数据集和比以前使用的 ERA5 更高的空间和时间分辨率版本的结果证实了以前的研究。在欧洲,在西海岸发现高共现,在东海岸发现低共现。所有数据集在欧洲大部分地区都具有质量相似的空间模式,但不包括 ERA5χ值要大得多。与观察结果相比,ERA5 很好地代表了每日极端同时发生的事件发生的时间。通过考虑每小时、6、24 和 48 小时的同时发生,还可以解释降水积累时间尺度的差异。在一些地区,随着累积时间的延长,共生变化表明影响这些地区的天气系统的速度和规模不同。χ 在大多数地区,由于允许降水和风之间存在 24 小时的滞后和超前,因此几乎没有增加,只有少数例外 χ增加了 24%。这些增加中较大的区域位于高架地形上或周围。使用客观特征跟踪方法,深入了解欧洲飓风中极端降水和风的空间格局。以及表明极端事件在特定位置彼此相隔多少小时。与非极端事件相比,极端同时发生的事件在更多时间与气旋相关。鉴于极端同时发生的事件,在欧洲大部分地区,气旋在 1110 公里范围内的可能性超过 70%。低共现地区存在由不同天气系统引起的极端事件,而高共现地区则存在由同一天气系统引起的两种极端事件。与极端事件相关的气旋,特别是同时发生的极端风,

更新日期:2021-08-11
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