Abstract

Companies which utilize equipment as a critical manufacturing asset should resolve the problem of economic replacement. In this article, a case study of equipment replacement for an auto parts manufacturer is presented. We derive a formula to calculate the expected service life using a classical binomial real options model under revenue uncertainty. A sensitivity analysis shows that the initial cost of the equipment has the largest impact on the expected service life in this case study. The presented real option model is applicable to manufacturing companies which seek to the solution of economic equipment replacement under revenue uncertainty.

中文翻译：

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收入不确定条件下设备的经济使用寿命：一种实物期权方法

摘要

将设备用作关键制造资产的公司应该解决经济替代问题。在本文中，介绍了汽车零部件制造商设备更换的案例研究。我们使用经典的二项式实物期权模型在收入不确定性下推导出一个公式来计算预期使用寿命。敏感性分析表明，在本案例研究中，设备的初始成本对预期使用寿命的影响最大。提出的实物期权模型适用于在收入不确定的情况下寻求经济设备更换解决方案的制造企业。