Winter oilseed rape (WOSR) is Europe’s prime oilseed crop and is grown for biofuel and edible oil production. To investigate the effects of climate change on the yield of winter oilseed rape, two crop models (HERMES and HUME-OSR) were used. This study investigated the sensitivity of crop model parameters (as a proxy of plant traits) under climate change. For both models, a global sensitivity analysis was performed under current temperatures, an increase of 2 and 4 °C, in combination with −50 %, −25 %, current, +25 % and +50 % precipitation change, resulting in 15 combinations. The analysis was done for six different sites in Europe located in Germany, France, and the Czech Republic. The two models differ in model formalism; however, results show that the most sensitive parameters of WOSR for both models are associated with drought, both under current climatic conditions, and under changing temperatures and precipitation regimes. The sensitivity analysis shows that the most sensitive parameters for WOSR yield under climate change relate to plant traits affecting the growth of the vegetative phase.

冬季油菜 (WOSR) 是欧洲主要的油籽作物，用于生产生物燃料和食用油。为了研究气候变化对冬季油菜产量的影响，使用了两种作物模型（HERMES 和 HUME-OSR）。本研究调查了气候变化下作物模型参数（作为植物性状的代表）的敏感性。对于这两个模型，在当前温度（分别增加 2 和 4 °C）以及 -50 %、-25 %、当前、+25 % 和 +50 % 降水变化的情况下进行了全局敏感性分析，产生了 15 种组合. 对位于德国、法国和捷克共和国的欧洲六个不同站点进行了分析。两种模型在模型形式上有所不同；然而，结果表明两个模型中最敏感的 WOSR 参数都与干旱有关，无论是在当前气候条件下，还是在不断变化的温度和降水状况下。敏感性分析表明，气候变化下WOSR产量最敏感的参数与影响营养期生长的植物性状有关。