Drivers of environmental change are causing novel combinations of pressures on ecological systems. Prediction in ecology often uses understanding of past conditions to make predictions to the future, but such an approach can breakdown when future conditions have not previously been encountered. Individual-based models (IBMs) consider ecological systems as arising from the adaptive behavior and fates of individuals and have potential to provide more reliable predictions. To demonstrate potential, we review a lineage of related IBMs addressing the effects of environmental change on waterbirds, comprising 53 case studies of 28 species in 32 sites in 9 countries, using the Drivers-Pressures-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) environmental management framework. Each case study comprises the predictions of an IBM on the effects of one or more drivers of environmental change on one or more bird species. Drivers exert a pressure on the environment which is represented in the IBMs as changes in either area or time available for feeding, the quality of habitat, or the energetic cost of living within an environment. Birds in the IBMs adapt to increased pressure by altering their behavioral state, defined as their location, diet, and the proportion of time spent feeding. If the birds are not able to compensate behaviorally, they suffer a physiological impact, determined by a decrease in body energy reserves, increased mortality, or decreased ability to migrate. Each case study assesses the impact of alternative drivers and potential ways to mitigate impacts to advise appropriate conservation management responses. We overview the lessons learned from the case studies and highlight the opportunities of using IBMs to inform conservation management for other species. Key findings indicate that understanding the behavioral and physiological processes that determine whether or not birds survive following a change in their environment is vital, so that mitigation measures can be better targeted. This is especially important where multiple hazards exist so that sensitivities and worse-case scenarios can be better understood. Increasing the involvement of stakeholders to help inform and shape model development is encouraged and can lead to better representation of the modeled system and wider understanding and support for the final model.

中文翻译：

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变化世界中的循证保护：水鸟个体模型的经验教训

环境变化的驱动因素正在对生态系统造成新的压力组合。生态学中的预测通常使用对过去条件的理解来预测未来，但是当以前没有遇到过未来条件时，这种方法可能会崩溃。基于个体的模型 (IBM) 将生态系统视为由个体的适应性行为和命运产生的，并且有可能提供更可靠的预测。为了展示潜力，我们使用驱动因素-压力-状态-影响-响应 (DPSIR) 环境管理审查了一系列相关 IBM，以解决环境变化对水鸟的影响，包括 9 个国家 32 个地点的 28 个物种的 53 个案例研究框架。每个案例研究都包含 IBM 对一种或多种环境变化驱动因素对一种或多种鸟类的影响的预测。司机对环境施加压力，IBM 表示这种压力表现为可供喂养的区域或时间、栖息地质量或环境中生活的能量成本的变化。IBM 中的鸟类通过改变行为状态来适应增加的压力，行为状态被定义为它们的位置、饮食和喂食时间的比例。如果鸟类不能在行为上进行补偿，它们就会遭受生理影响，这由身体能量储备减少、死亡率增加或迁徙能力下降决定。每个案例研究都会评估替代驱动因素的影响和减轻影响的潜在方法，以建议适当的保护管理响应。我们概述了从案例研究中吸取的经验教训，并强调了使用 IBM 为其他物种的保护管理提供信息的机会。主要研究结果表明，了解决定鸟类在环境变化后能否生存的行为和生理过程至关重要，以便可以更好地针对性地采取缓解措施。这在存在多种危险的情况下尤其重要，以便可以更好地了解敏感性和更坏的情况。