The impact of COVID-19 has been massive and unprecedented, affecting almost every aspect of our daily lives. This paper attempts to quantify the impact of COVID-19 on the future size, composition and distribution of Australia's population by projecting a range of scenarios. Drawing on the academic literature, historical data and informed by expert judgement, four scenarios representing possible future courses of economic and demographic recovery are formulated. Results suggest that Australia's population could be 6 per cent lower by 2040 in a Longer scenario than in the No Pandemic scenario, primarily due to a huge reduction in international migration. Impacts on population ageing will be less severe, leading to a one percentage point increase in the proportion of the population aged 65 and over by 2040. Differential impacts will be felt across Australian States and Territories, with the biggest absolute and relative reductions in growth occurring in the most populous states, Victoria and New South Wales. Given the ongoing nature of the crisis at the time of writing, there remains significant uncertainty surrounding the plausibility of the proposed scenarios. Ongoing monitoring of the demographic impacts of COVID-19 are important to ensure appropriate planning and recovery in the years ahead.

COVID-19 的影响是巨大且前所未有的，几乎影响到我们日常生活的方方面面。本文试图通过预测一系列情景来量化 COVID-19 对澳大利亚未来人口规模、构成和分布的影响。借鉴学术文献、历史数据并根据专家判断，制定了代表未来经济和人口复苏可能走向的四种情景。研究结果表明，到 2040 年，在长期情景下，澳大利亚人口可能比无大流行情景下减少 6% ，这主要是由于国际移民大幅减少。对人口老龄化的影响将不那么严重，到 2040 年，65 岁及以上人口的比例将增加 1 个百分点。澳大利亚各州和领地将感受到不同的影响，绝对和相对增长率将出现最大的下降在人口最多的州维多利亚州和新南威尔士州。鉴于截至撰写本文时危机的持续性质，拟议情景的合理性仍然存在很大的不确定性。持续监测 COVID-19 对人口的影响对于确保未来几年的适当规划和恢复非常重要。