Major epidemics of the last two decades (SARS, H1N1, MERS, Ebola, and Zika) have been followed by increases in inequality [Furceri et al. (2020), COVID Economics, 12, 138–157]. In this article, we show that the extent of fiscal consolidation in the years following the onset of these pandemics has played an important role in determining the extent of the increase in inequality. Episodes marked by extreme austerity—measured using either the government’s fiscal balance, health expenditures, or redistribution—have been associated with an increase in the Gini measure of inequality three times as large as in episodes where fiscal policy has been more supportive. We survey the evidence thus far on the distributional impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, which suggests that inequality is likely to increase in the absence of strong policy actions. We review the case made by many observers [IMF (2020), Fiscal Monitor; Stiglitz (2020), Finance & Development, Fall 2020; Sandbu (2020b), Financial Times, 26 November 2020)] that fiscal support should not be withdrawn prematurely despite understandable concerns about high public debt-to-GDP ratios.

中文翻译：

---

大流行后不平等加剧：财政支持能否起到缓解作用？

过去二十年的主要流行病（SARS、H1N1、中东呼吸综合征、埃博拉病毒和寨卡病毒）伴随着不平等的加剧 [Furceri 等人。(2020), COVID 经济学, 12, 138–157]。在本文中，我们表明，在这些大流行病爆发后的几年中，财政整顿的程度在确定不平等加剧的程度方面发挥了重要作用。以极端紧缩为标志的事件——使用政府的财政平衡、卫生支出或再分配来衡量——与衡量不平等的基尼系数增加有关，是财政政策更加支持的事件的三倍。我们调查了迄今为止关于 COVID-19 大流行对分配影响的证据，这表明如果没有强有力的政策行动，不平等可能会加剧。我们回顾了许多观察者提出的案例 [IMF (2020), Fiscal Monitor; Stiglitz (2020)，金融与发展，2020 年秋季；Sandbu (2020b)，《金融时报》，2020 年 11 月 26 日)]尽管对公共债务与 GDP 比率高的担忧是可以理解的，但不应过早撤回财政支持。