This paper analyses the empirical relation between inflation and unemployment over the past 25 years by using a panel state-space model. After controlling for the global factor, I find that the domestic rate of unemployment explains 11% in the variation of headline inflation, suggesting a significant power that domestic slack has in influencing medium-term core inflation. The global factor, in turn, is well explained by global oil and food prices as well as global trade integration. The contribution of the global slack in explaining the global component of inflation is negligible. Additionally, using a set of threshold regressions, I identify breakpoints that split inflation dynamics into various regimes. In particular, I find a higher sensitivity of inflation to unemployment in high-inflation and/or low-unemployment regimes. This finding is consistent with less frequent price adjustments of firms in low-inflation and high-unemployment environments.

中文翻译：

---

预期、失业和通货膨胀：实证调查

本文使用面板状态空间模型分析了过去 25 年通货膨胀与失业之间的经验关系。在控制了全球因素后，我发现国内失业率在总体通胀的变化中解释了 11%，这表明国内闲置在影响中期核心通胀方面具有显着的力量。反过来，全球石油和食品价格以及全球贸易一体化很好地解释了全球因素。全球经济疲软在解释通货膨胀的全球成分方面的贡献可以忽略不计。此外，使用一组阈值回归，我确定了将通货膨胀动态划分为各种制度的断点。特别是，我发现在高通胀和/或低失业率的情况下，通胀对失业的敏感性更高。