Abstract

Recent national level guidelines and research efforts increasingly suggest the use of resilience and sustainability concepts for natural hazard mitigation and recovery planning at the regional and community levels. This paper aims to distinguish and compare the two abstract concepts in the context of road networks recovering from a hazard event since resilience and sustainability metrics are often interchangeably adopted and can lead to inaccurate equivalencies between the two concepts. A spectrum of resilience and sustainability metrics are defined herein and a research methodology is described to evaluate them probabilistically. A case study demonstration on the road network in the Memphis Metropolitan Statistical Area (MMSA) for a probabilistic suite of earthquake scenarios shows that the correlation between network resilience and sustainability is dependent on the hazard level as well as the graphical abstraction of the real road network. While some correlations are observed between temporal sustainability metrics, such as missed trips and traffic emissions, and resilience metrics, like total travel distance and time, the correlation weakens as the network resolution becomes more sparse. These results show that while for dense networks, time-evolving travel time and travel distance may be used as proxy measures for hazard sustainability evolution, for sparsely connected networks, hazard resilience and post-hazard sustainability remain relatively distinct.

摘要

最近的国家级指南和研究工作越来越多地建议在区域和社区级别使用弹性和可持续性概念来减轻自然灾害和恢复规划。本文旨在在道路网络从灾害事件中恢复的背景下区分和比较这两个抽象概念，因为弹性和可持续性指标通常可以互换使用，并可能导致这两个概念之间的等价性不准确。本文定义了一系列弹性和可持续性指标，并描述了一种研究方法以对它们进行概率评估。孟菲斯大都会统计区 (MMSA) 道路网络的一组地震场景概率案例研究表明，网络弹性与可持续性之间的相关性取决于灾害级别以及真实道路网络的图形抽象. 虽然在时间可持续性指标（如错过的行程和交通排放）与弹性指标（如总行程距离和时间）之间观察到一些相关性，但随着网络分辨率变得更加稀疏，相关性减弱。这些结果表明，虽然对于密集网络，随时间演变的旅行时间和旅行距离可以用作灾害可持续性演变的代理措施，但对于稀疏连接的网络，灾害恢复力和灾害后可持续性仍然相对不同。