ABSTRACT

This paper addresses three questions: (1) what would have been the growth and income trajectory of Syria in the absence of war; (2) given the war, what explains the reduction in economic growth; and (3) what potential growth scenarios for Syria there could be in the aftermath of war. Conflict impact estimates point to negative GDP growth of −12% on average over 2011–2018, with output contracting to about one-third of the 2010 level. In post-conflict simulation scenarios, the growth drivers are affected by the assumed levels of reconstruction assistance, repatriation of refugees, and productivity improvements associated with three political settlement outcomes: a baseline (Sochi-plus) moderate scenario, an optimistic (robust political settlement) scenario, and a pessimistic (de facto balance of power) scenario. Respectively for these scenarios, GDP per capita average growth in the next two decades is projected to be 6.1%, 8.2%, or 3.1%, assuming a final and stable resolution of the conflict.

摘要

本文解决了三个问题：(1) 在没有战争的情况下，叙利亚的增长和收入轨迹是什么；(2) 考虑到战争，经济增长放缓的原因是什么；(3) 战后叙利亚的潜在增长前景如何。冲突影响估计表明，2011-2018 年 GDP 平均负增长 -12%，产出收缩至 2010 年水平的约三分之一。在冲突后模拟情景中，增长动力受到与三种政治解决结果相关的假设重建援助水平、难民遣返和生产力提高的影响：基线（索契+）温和情景，乐观（稳健的政治解决） ) 情景和悲观（事实上的权力平衡）情景。分别针对这些场景，