Oregon softwood log exports experienced a resurgence during years after the Great Recession. Using an empirically grounded partial equilibrium model, the purpose of this study is to assess the net effects of log exports on total economic surplus by measuring the effects of a hypothetical absence of export markets from 2010:Q1 to 2015:Q4. Based on our modeling results, the net economic losses would have amounted to $248 million during the study period in total. Oregon mills would have gained $1.66 billion in total, whereas landowners would have lost $1.91 billion in total had there not been export markets. Furthermore, additional losses would have occurred from the forgone export premium. Our modeling results suggest that harvests would have been 1.97 billion board feet lower in the absence of export markets. However, Oregon mills would have used an additional 3.0 billion board feet. We also provide estimates for potential employment effects.

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衡量软木原木出口价值：来自俄勒冈州的证据

俄勒冈州软木原木出口在大萧条后的几年里出现了复苏。使用基于经验的部分均衡模型，本研究的目的是通过测量 2010 年第一季度至 2015 年第四季度假设出口市场缺失的影响来评估原木出口对总经济盈余的净影响。根据我们的建模结果，研究期间的净经济损失总计为 2.48 亿美元。如果没有出口市场，俄勒冈州的工厂将总共获得 16.6 亿美元，而土地所有者将总共损失 19.1 亿美元。此外，放弃的出口溢价还会产生额外的损失。我们的建模结果表明，在没有出口市场的情况下，收成将减少 19.7 亿板英尺。然而，俄勒冈工厂将额外使用 30 亿板英尺。我们还提供了对潜在就业影响的估计。