Wildfires are one of the main processes that currently shape Mediterranean ecosystems. The analysis of wildfire risk combined with historical records allows for a greater understanding of trends and their relation to territorial variables that are favourable to future events. Using GIS analysis, we assess wildfire risk in La Campana – Penuelas Biosphere Reserve, in Central Chile. Additionally, with official historical records and LANDSAT satellite images from 1985–2015 and GIS we determine historical occurrence in the Reserve. We found that the areas with very high risk of wildfire occurrence have a strong combination of ignition factors such as presence of human settlements and road connectivity, and variables that would be negatively impacted by the occurrence of wildfires, such as degraded soils and vulnerable vegetation. These findings highlight the need to destine resources to fire prevention in these areas and develop adaptation strategies for risk management at different scales.

中文翻译：

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智利中部地中海生物圈保护区的野火风险和历史发生情况分析

野火是目前塑造地中海生态系统的主要过程之一。结合历史记录对野火风险进行分析，可以更好地了解趋势及其与有利于未来事件的领土变量的关系。我们使用 GIS 分析评估了智利中部拉坎帕纳 – 佩努埃拉斯生物圈保护区的野火风险。此外，根据 1985-2015 年的官方历史记录和 LANDSAT 卫星图像以及 GIS，我们确定了保护区的历史事件。我们发现，在发生野火的风险非常高的地区，着火因素（例如人类住区的存在和道路连通性）以及会受到野火发生的负面影响的变量（例如退化的土壤和脆弱的植被）具有很强的组合。