The political instability and social unrest in Tunisia since 2011, generated a short-term foresight of the macroeconomic management which contributed to the deterioration of the country’s macroeconomic fundamentals. The objective of this paper is to provide the policy makers with quantitative arguments showing the importance to undertake the macroeconomic stabilization and the structural reforms that improve the total factor productivity, one of the main engines of a sustained economic growth. To that end, the paper employs a financial dynamic general equilibrium model calibrated using six flow-of-funds accounts representing the Tunisian economy in 2010. In a first stage, I reproduce the main macroeconomic variables observed for the Tunisian economy over 2011–2018. In a second stage, the model is used to compare the impacts of counterfactual policy scenarios on the Tunisian macroeconomic performance. The results show that the economy could perform much better, in relation to a battery of macroeconomic indicators (economic growth, unemployment, public external and domestic debts, current account, fiscal balance) under alternative economic policies. The most insightful results are obtained under the scenario of a total factor productivity’s growth progressing at its average level of 2001–2010. Indeed, this could generate an average yearly gain in terms of GDP growth of 3.45 percentage points and a reduction of the average unemployment rate by 7 percentage points over the same time horizon.

突尼斯2011年以来的政局不稳和社会动荡，产生了对宏观经济管理的短期预见，导致该国宏观经济基本面恶化。本文的目的是为政策制定者提供定量论据，表明进行宏观经济稳定和结构改革以提高全要素生产率（经济持续增长的主要引擎之一）的重要性。为此，本文采用了金融动态一般均衡模型，该模型使用代表 2010 年突尼斯经济的六个资金流量账户进行校准。在第一阶段，我再现了 2011-2018 年突尼斯经济的主要宏观经济变量。在第二阶段，该模型用于比较反事实政策情景对突尼斯宏观经济表现的影响。结果表明，在替代经济政策下，与一系列宏观经济指标（经济增长、失业、公共外债和国内债务、经常账户、财政平衡）相关的经济表现可能会好得多。最有洞察力的结果是在全要素生产率增长在 2001-2010 年平均水平的情况下获得的。事实上，这可以使 GDP 年均增长 3.45 个百分点，同时平均失业率下降 7 个百分点。与替代经济政策下的一系列宏观经济指标（经济增长、失业、公共外债和国内债务、经常账户、财政平衡）有关。最有洞察力的结果是在全要素生产率增长在 2001-2010 年平均水平的情况下获得的。事实上，这可以使 GDP 年均增长 3.45 个百分点，同时平均失业率下降 7 个百分点。与替代经济政策下的一系列宏观经济指标（经济增长、失业、公共外债和国内债务、经常账户、财政平衡）有关。最有洞察力的结果是在全要素生产率增长在 2001-2010 年平均水平的情况下获得的。事实上，这可以使 GDP 年均增长 3.45 个百分点，同时平均失业率下降 7 个百分点。