While climate change and biodiversity loss have exposed humanity to major systemic risks, policymakers in more than 40 countries have proposed the transition from a fossil-based to a bio-based economy as a solution to curb the risks. In the boreal region, forests have a prominent role in contributing to bioeconomy development; however, forest-based bioeconomy transition pathways towards sustainability and the required actions have not yet been identified. Participatory backcasting was employed in this study to ‘negotiate’ such pathways among Finnish stakeholders by 2060 in three forest-based value networks: forest biorefineries, fibre-based packaging and wooden multistorey construction. There are many alternative pathways, ranging from incremental to more radical, to a forest-based bioeconomy within a framework of ambitious climate and biodiversity targets. Path dependence can support incremental development on bioeconomy transition pathways, and this should be considered when planning transition towards sustainability. Orchestration of the more radical changes requires actions from legislators, raw material producers, consumers and researchers, because the possibilities for business development vary between different companies and value networks. The envisioned actions between the pathways in and across the networks, such as forest diversification and diverse wood utilisation, can offer co-benefits in climate change mitigation and biodiversity protection.

尽管气候变化和生物多样性丧失使人类面临重大的系统性风险，但 40 多个国家的政策制定者已提出从化石经济向生物经济转型作为遏制风险的解决方案。在北方地区，森林在促进生物经济发展方面发挥着重要作用；然而，尚未确定以森林为基础的生物经济向可持续性过渡的途径和所需的行动。到 2060 年，参与式回溯在芬兰利益相关者之间通过三个基于森林的价值网络进行“谈判”：森林生物精炼厂、基于纤维的包装和木制多层建筑。有许多替代途径，从渐进式到更激进，在雄心勃勃的气候和生物多样性目标框架内实现以森林为基础的生物经济。路径依赖可以支持生物经济转型路径的渐进式发展，在规划向可持续性转型时应考虑到这一点。协调更激进的变化需要立法者、原材料生产商、消费者和研究人员的行动，因为业务发展的可能性因公司和价值网络而异。网络内和网络间路径之间的设想行动，例如森林多样化和木材多样化利用，可以在减缓气候变化和保护生物多样性方面带来共同利益。在规划向可持续性过渡时应考虑到这一点。协调更激进的变化需要立法者、原材料生产商、消费者和研究人员的行动，因为业务发展的可能性因公司和价值网络而异。网络内和网络间路径之间的设想行动，例如森林多样化和木材多样化利用，可以在减缓气候变化和保护生物多样性方面带来共同利益。在规划向可持续性过渡时应考虑到这一点。协调更激进的变化需要立法者、原材料生产商、消费者和研究人员的行动，因为业务发展的可能性因公司和价值网络而异。网络内和网络间路径之间的设想行动，例如森林多样化和木材多样化利用，可以在减缓气候变化和保护生物多样性方面带来共同利益。