Residential natural gas consumption depends on several factors. Available tools and methods to identify, categorize, and validate effective factors have some limitations, making consumption modeling more complex. Once a comprehensive model of effective consumption factors is developed for residential gas consumers, it can predict consumption. In addition, such a model could be used to verify the accuracy of measuring devices in order to reduce unaccounted for gas (UFG). The key factors affecting residential gas consumption were identified based on previous studies and their mutual effects were analyzed using a fuzzy cognitive mapping (FCM) method. The most significant factors and their effects on natural gas consumption in the residential sector were determined. In this study, for the first time, the expected consumption for each consumer was estimated using a consumption index. Generally, if the estimated consumption is significantly different from the amount recorded by the meter, it could suggest a potential source of UFG. The proposed method was applied to the data collected from the residential gas consumers of a small region in Iran (Dasht-e Arjan region, Fars province), and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.

中文翻译：

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使用综合模糊认知图对住宅天然气消费者中的不明天然气进行建模


住宅天然气消耗量取决于几个因素。现有的识别、分类和验证有效因素的工具和方法存在一些局限性，使得消费建模变得更加复杂。一旦为住宅燃气消费者开发了有效消费因素的综合模型，就可以预测消费量。此外，这样的模型可用于验证测量设备的准确性，以减少不明气体（UFG）。根据以往的研究，确定了影响居民燃气消耗的关键因素，并利用模糊认知图谱（FCM）方法分析了它们之间的相互影响。确定了最重要的因素及其对住宅领域天然气消耗的影响。在这项研究中，首次使用消费指数来估算每个消费者的预期消费。一般来说，如果估计的消耗量与仪表记录的量显着不同，则可能表明存在潜在的UFG来源。该方法应用于伊朗小地区（法尔斯省Dasht-e Arjan地区）居民燃气用户收集的数据，结果证明了该方法的有效性。