This study examines the trade effects of the Eurasian Economic Union on global production sharing. We use a panel dataset of bilateral exports of intermediate goods, parts and components and final assembly for 12 Eurasian countries with 28 partners for 2000–18. We estimate a gravity model using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood method to mitigate zero trade values and heteroskedasticity issues. Our analysis provides new empirical evidence on significant net trade creation effects of 111% in intermediate goods exports due to EAEU formation. Our findings also highlight that a substantial share of the increase in intermediate goods exports originates from trade creation in final assembly exports while parts and components show net trade diversion effects. Further, a country-level analysis reveals that the trade effects of EAEU are heterogeneous across all the members, with Armenia and the Russian Federation benefiting the most and the Kyrgyz Republic benefiting the least from the EAEU formation. Our study has important policy implications on promoting production sharing in the Eurasian region and hence remains of interest to policymakers.

本研究考察了欧亚经济联盟对全球生产共享的贸易影响。我们使用了 2000-18 年间 12 个欧亚国家和 28 个合作伙伴的中间产品、零部件和最终组装双边出口的面板数据集。我们使用泊松伪最大似然法估计重力模型，以减轻零贸易值和异方差问题。我们的分析提供了新的经验证据，证明由于欧亚经济联盟的形成，中间产品出口产生了 111% 的重大净贸易创造效应。我们的研究结果还强调，中间产品出口增长的很大一部分来自最终组装出口的贸易创造，而零部件则显示出净贸易转移效应。更多，一项国家层面的分析表明，EAEU 的贸易影响在所有成员中各不相同，亚美尼亚和俄罗斯联邦从 EAEU 的组建中受益最大，吉尔吉斯共和国受益最少。我们的研究对促进欧亚地区的生产共享具有重要的政策意义，因此仍然引起政策制定者的兴趣。