Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to outline the benefits of using system dynamics modelling as a research tool to understand the dynamics of commercial property markets in the UK and their long-term behaviour. It highlights areas for future work.

Design/methodology/approach

This is a concept paper that outlines a simple systems model of rental change in UK commercial property markets as a way of illustrating how a systems approach can be used to describe and model the market. The model concentrates on the user market and offers a view of market operation, according to which development activity is initiated by demand (linked to economic growth) and to which supply responds by producing development.

Findings

The model demonstrates how a systems approach can be used to model the impact of a wide range of market variables on rental growth. The approach allows non-linear modelling of the complex relationships and behavioural factors that are difficult to include in existing econometric models of the market. It highlights where existing knowledge is deficient, especially with regard to price elasticity of demand, the relationship between economic activity and take up, the potential impact of redevelopment on the supply of new property and rental growth and response times of various parts of the market development process to market signals. It outlines where further research is needed to incorporate real market data.

Originality/value

Despite the wide application of the systems theory to business and other related areas, its use in commercial property research has been limited and has not gained much traction as a research tool. The work represents one of a very few studies applying the systems theory to the UK commercial property market.

中文翻译：

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使用系统动力学建模来了解英国商业地产市场的行为

目的

本文的目的是概述使用系统动力学建模作为研究工具来了解英国商业地产市场的动态及其长期行为的好处。它突出了未来工作的领域。

设计/方法/方法

这是一份概念文件，概述了英国商业地产市场租金变化的简单系统模型，以说明如何使用系统方法来描述和模拟市场。该模型专注于用户市场并提供市场运作的观点，根据该市场运作，开发活动由需求启动（与经济增长相关），而供应通过生产开发做出响应。

发现

该模型展示了如何使用系统方法来模拟各种市场变量对租金增长的影响。该方法允许对难以包含在现有市场计量模型中的复杂关系和行为因素进行非线性建模。它强调了现有知识的不足之处，特别是关于需求的价格弹性、经济活动与占用率之间的关系、重建对新物业供应和租金增长的潜在影响以及市场发展各个部分的响应时间处理市场信号。它概述了需要进一步研究以纳入真实市场数据的地方。

原创性/价值

尽管系统理论在商业和其他相关领域得到了广泛的应用，但它在商业财产研究中的应用受到了限制，并且作为一种研究工具并没有获得太多的关注。这项工作是为数不多的将系统理论应用于英国商业地产市场的研究之一。