Employing nonparametric bounds, we evaluate the validity of the Vietnam lottery draft as the Instrumental Variable (IV) for the Vietnam Era military service, and re-examine the effect of military service on future incarceration and recidivism outcomes. We allow the lottery draft to have a net (or direct) effect on the outcomes through channels other than its impact on military service, thereby disposing of the exclusion restriction (ER) assumption. Our estimated bounds suggest that the net effect of the lottery draft increases the incarceration and recidivism rate for violent offenses, implying that the ER assumption is not valid in this context. This net effect is especially potent among the 1950 birth cohort: the lottery draft eligibility directly increases their incarceration rates for violent crimes by at least 0.13 percentage points, and of violent recidivists † We have received numerous useful comments and suggestions from Carlos A. Flores and participants at Binghamton University’s “labor group”, especially Carmen Carrión-Flores, Solomon Polachek, and David Slichter. We also thank comments from Josh Angrist, Ron Ehrenberg, Chris Hanes, Martin Huber, Hyunseok Jung, Jonathan Kulick, Logan M. Lee, Jason Lindo, Sarah Quintanar, Charles Stoecker, Xueyan Zhao, and participants at the 2015 Midwest Economics Association conference, the 2016 Western Economics Association International conference, the 2016 Midwest Econometrics Group meeting, the 2016 Southern Economics Association conference, the 2017 NY Camp Econometrics, Université de Fribourg, the 2017 Society of Labor Economics conference, and The Economics of Crime and Policing Symposium at Syracuse University. We thank Jason Lindo and Charles Stoecker for their help in replicating the results in Lindo and Stoecker (2014). Remaining errors are our own. Department of Economics, Hobart and Smith Colleges; Geneva NY, 14456; Telephone: +1 607-761-9608; Email: WANG@hws.edu. Department of Economics and Center for Policy Research, Syracuse University; IZA, and GLO; 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse NY 13244-1020; Telephone: +1 315-443-9045; Email: afloresl@maxwell.syr.edu.

中文翻译：

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征兵和兵役：它们是否会导致未来的暴力和非暴力监禁和累犯？

我们使用非参数边界评估越南彩票选秀作为越南时代兵役的工具变量 (IV) 的有效性，并重新检查兵役对未来监禁和累犯结果的影响。我们允许抽签通过其对兵役以外的渠道对结果产生净（或直接）影响，从而消除排除限制 (ER) 假设。我们估计的界限表明，彩票选秀的净效应增加了暴力犯罪的监禁和再犯率，这意味着 ER 假设在这种情况下无效。这种净效应在 1950 年出生的人群中尤为明显：抽签资格直接将他们的暴力犯罪监禁率提高了至少 0.13 个百分点，和暴力惯犯 † 我们收到了 Carlos A. Flores 和宾厄姆顿大学“劳工小组”的参与者，尤其是 Carmen Carrión-Flores、Solomon Polachek 和 David Slichter 的许多有用的评论和建议。我们还要感谢 Josh Angrist、Ron Ehrenberg、Chris Hanes、Martin Huber、Hyunseok Jung、Jonathan Kulick、Logan M. Lee、Jason Lindo、Sarah Quintanar、Charles Stoecker、Xueyan Zhao 以及 2015 年中西部经济学会会议参与者的评论， 2016 年西方经济学协会国际会议、2016 年中西部计量经济学小组会议、2016 年南方经济学协会会议、2017 年纽约营计量经济学、弗里堡大学、2017 年劳动经济学学会会议以及锡拉丘兹犯罪经济学和警务研讨会大学。我们感谢 Jason Lindo 和 Charles Stoecker 在复制 Lindo 和 Stoecker (2014) 中的结果方面提供的帮助。剩下的错误是我们自己的。经济系，霍巴特和史密斯学院；纽约州日内瓦，14456；电话：+1 607-761-9608；电子邮件：王@hws.edu。雪城大学经济系和政策研究中心；IZA 和 GLO；426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse NY 13244-1020；电话：+1 315-443-9045；电子邮件：afloresl@maxwell.syr.edu。