A popular model of normative decision-making under uncertainty suggests choosing the option with the maximum expected moral choice-worthiness (MEC), where the choice-worthiness values from each moral theory, which are assumed commensurable, are weighted by credence and combined. This study adds descriptive uncertainty about the non-moral facts of a situation into the model by treating choice-worthiness as a random variable. When agents face greater descriptive uncertainty, the choice-worthiness random variable will have a greater spread and a larger standard deviation. MEC, as a decision rule, is sensitive only to the expected value of the random variable and not to its standard deviation. For example, MEC is insensitive to cases where an option with a large degree of descriptive uncertainty may have a higher probability of being below some threshold of impermissibility than does an option with less dispersion, even though the latter has a higher expected choice-worthiness. When applied to the same situation, similar moral theories will have statistically correlated choice-worthiness values. This correlation affects the dispersion of the credence-weighted sum of the random variables but not its expected value. Thus, MEC is insensitive to aspects of the normative situation to which a good decision-rule should be sensitive.

中文翻译：

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描述性不确定性和最大化预期选择价值

在不确定性下的规范决策的流行模型建议选择具有最大预期道德选择价值 (MEC) 的选项，其中假设每个道德理论的选择价值值是可公度的，通过可信度加权并组合。本研究通过将选择价值视为随机变量，将有关情况的非道德事实的描述性不确定性添加到模型中。当代理人面临更大的描述不确定性时，选择价值随机变量将具有更大的分布和更大的标准偏差。MEC 作为决策规则，仅对随机变量的期望值敏感，对其标准差不敏感。例如，MEC 对以下情况不敏感：具有较大程度描述性不确定性的选项可能比具有较小分散性的选项具有更高的可能性低于某个不允许的阈值，即使后者具有更高的预期选择价值。当应用于相同的情况时，类似的道德理论将具有统计相关的选择价值。这种相关性影响随机变量的信用加权总和的分散，但不影响其期望值。因此，MEC 对良好决策规则应该敏感的规范情况的各个方面不敏感。类似的道德理论将具有统计相关的选择价值。这种相关性会影响随机变量的信用加权总和的离散度，但不会影响其期望值。因此，MEC 对良好决策规则应该敏感的规范情况的各个方面不敏感。类似的道德理论将具有统计相关的选择价值。这种相关性会影响随机变量的信用加权总和的离散度，但不会影响其期望值。因此，MEC 对良好决策规则应该敏感的规范情况的各个方面不敏感。