Our study analyzes potential agro-industrial soybean expansion dynamics and is the first to project soybean expansion Paraguayan Chaco. This biodiverse region, home to the greatest diversity of indigenous groups in Paraguay, has recently seen some of the world’s highest deforestation rates, losing 3.4 Mha of forestland between 2001 and 2014. Soy, a globally traded commodity crop and Paraguay’s largest export product, recently arrived in the area and may exacerbate the high deforestation rates currently attributed to pastureland expansion. We combine extensive field, trade, and satellite data, to analyze the context, and push-pull factors that are driving frontier expansion dynamics, and assess the potential impacts of soybean-based land use change using geo-located accounts of current soybean production sites. Our analysis finds that roughly 742,000 ha in the Paraguayan Chaco are suitable for soybean frontier expansion with an additional 940,000 ha moderately suitable for expansion. We identify the main drivers of soybean expansion in the region as agricultural technology and land price appreciation. However, infrastructure investments are set to further drive soybean expansion dynamics and connect the region via navigable rivers and roads with access to ports on the Atlantic and Pacific oceans as part of the multi-national Corredor-Bioceánico “bi-oceanic corridor” road project. The continued rapid development of this fragile landscape could transform the Paraguayan Chaco into a major South American logistics hub for soybean and other agricultural production. Without appropriate governance systems in place, this development could lead to irreversible large-scale damage to the socio-environmental systems, similar to boom dynamics seen in other South American frontiers.

我们的研究分析了潜在的农工业大豆扩张动态，并且是第一个预测大豆扩张巴拉圭查科的研究。这个生物多样性丰富的地区是巴拉圭土著群体最多样化的家园，最近出现了一些世界上最高的森林砍伐率，在 2001 年至 2014 年间损失了 3.4 兆公顷的林地。大豆是一种全球贸易的商品作物，也是巴拉圭最大的出口产品，最近到达该地区，并可能加剧目前归因于牧场扩张的高森林砍伐率。我们结合广泛的实地、贸易和卫星数据，分析推动前沿扩张动态的背景和推拉因素，并使用当前大豆生产地点的地理定位账户评估基于大豆的土地利用变化的潜在影响. 我们的分析发现，大约 742，巴拉圭查科的 000 公顷适合大豆前沿扩张，另外 940,000 公顷适度适合扩张。我们认为该地区大豆扩张的主要驱动因素是农业技术和土地价格上涨。然而，基础设施投资将进一步推动大豆扩张，并通过可通航的河流和道路连接该地区，连接大西洋和太平洋的港口，作为跨国合作的一部分。Corredor-Bioceánico “双洋走廊”公路项目。这一脆弱景观的持续快速发展可能会将巴拉圭查科转变为南美大豆和其他农业生产的主要物流中心。如果没有适当的治理系统，这种发展可能会对社会环境系统造成不可逆转的大规模破坏，类似于其他南美前沿的繁荣动态。