ABSTRACT

Despite high economic growth rates experienced recently, socio-economic challenges such as poverty still prevail in Tanzania. This has been attributed to unsuccessful economic transformation where labour has moved out of agriculture into mainly relative less productive services and informal sectors, leapfrogging the highly productive manufacturing sector. The government is targeting the expansion of agro-processing activities for economic transformation and four policy options were explored. Results of a computable general equilibrium model indicated that policies such as (1) attracting foreign direct investment to improve productivity should be encouraged, especially if (2) coupled with export strategies. (3) Agricultural expansion is also crucial to expand the input base for agro-processing activities. (4) Non-targeted policies such as improving education may not be sufficient for the sector’s expansion but are crucial for the expansion of the whole economy. Government should be mindful of the varied implications of different policies on factor returns and household incomes.

摘要

尽管最近经济增长率很高，但贫困等社会经济挑战在坦桑尼亚仍然普遍存在。这归因于不成功的经济转型，劳动力已经从农业转移到主要是生产力相对较低的服务业和非正规部门，超越了高生产力的制造业。政府的目标是扩大农产品加工活动以促进经济转型，并探索了四种政策选择。可计算一般均衡模型的结果表明，应鼓励诸如 (1) 吸引外国直接投资以提高生产率等政策，尤其是在 (2) 与出口战略相结合的情况下。(3) 农业扩张对于扩大农产品加工活动的投入基础也至关重要。(4) 改善教育等非针对性政策可能不足以推动行业扩张，但对整个经济的扩张至关重要。政府应注意不同政策对要素回报和家庭收入的不同影响。