This paper studies the method by which Leamon et al. (Solar Phys. 295, 36, 2020) produces predictions for the so-called “terminator” of solar cycles (in particular Solar Cycle 24), which is a novel way of defining the length of a solar cycle. This method involves use of a Hilbert transform of the data and a derived “phase”. The present paper both replicates and augments methods and results from that paper, but finds that its claim to have identified a mathematically robust signature of terminators in sunspot records is not well founded. In particular, we demonstrate that the results are significantly sensitive to both the starting point of the data and the centralizing constant used to provide a meaningful Hilbert phase. Some realistic parameter choices, including more recently available data, push the predicted terminator back by about 2 years. This has concomitant implications for predictions of the magnitude of the next cycle (25), which depend on the length of the previous cycle. In particular, an increase by 2 years would reduce the predicted 233 maximum sunspot number in McIntosh et al. (Solar Phys. 295, 163, 2020) to 173.

本文研究了 Leamon 等人的方法。（太阳物理学 。295, 36, 2020) 对所谓的太阳周期“终结者”（特别是太阳周期 24）进行预测，这是一种定义太阳周期长度的新方法。该方法涉及使用数据的希尔伯特变换和导出的“相位”。本论文既复制又扩充了该论文的方法和结果，但发现其声称已识别出太阳黑子记录中终止子的数学上稳健的特征的说法没有充分根据。特别是，我们证明了结果对数据的起点和用于提供有意义的希尔伯特阶段的集中常数都非常敏感。一些现实的参数选择，包括最近可用的数据，将预测的终结者推后了大约 2 年。这对预测下一个周期（25）的幅度有伴随的影响，这取决于前一个周期的长度。特别是，增加 2 年将减少 McIntosh 等人预测的 233 个最大太阳黑子数量。(太阳能物理。 295、163、2020 ) 到 173。