We provide evidence on the dynamic effects of fuel price shocks, shipping demand shocks and shipping supply shocks on real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. We first analyse a new dataset on dry bulk freight rates for the period from 1850 to 2020, finding that they followed a downward but undulating path with a cumulative decline of 79%. Next, we turn to understanding the drivers of booms and busts in the dry bulk shipping industry, finding that shipping demand shocks strongly dominate all others as drivers of real dry bulk freight rates in the long run. Furthermore, while shipping demand shocks have increased in importance over time, shipping supply shocks in particular have become less relevant.

中文翻译：

---

干散货运输和海运成本的演变，1850-2020 年

我们提供了燃料价格冲击、航运需求冲击和航运供应冲击对实际干散货运费的长期动态影响的证据。我们首先分析了 1850 年至 2020 年期间干散货运费的新数据集，发现它们遵循下降但起伏不定的路径，累计下降 79%。接下来，我们开始了解干散货航运业繁荣和萧条的驱动因素，发现航运需求冲击作为长期实际干散货运费的驱动因素在所有其他因素中占据主导地位。此外，虽然航运需求冲击的重要性随着时间的推移而增加，但航运供应冲击尤其变得不那么重要。