This study examines the potential abatement of environmental pollutant emissions with the adoption of autonomous vessels in future maritime transportation using Bayesian probabilistic forecasting algorithm. The emission reductions can be attributed to the related technological advancement, including particularly the improvements in navigational performance and berthing in port, which can achieve better efficiencies and lower fluctuations in sailing speeds. The scenario modeling approach is first established based on the foreseeable development of energy policies and usage as well as ship operations. Subsequently, assessment is performed in five major ports worldwide, namely Shanghai, Singapore, Long Beach, Hamburg, Tokyo from Year 2020 to 2050. The results are compared to the corresponding projections with manned shipping to determine the probabilistic emission abatements with the gradual adoption of autonomous ships into the fleet. Overall, the results provide a better understanding of the future environmental benefits with autonomous shipping to the policymakers, shipowners, and shipping industry.

本研究使用贝叶斯概率预测算法研究了在未来海上运输中采用自主船舶可能减少环境污染物排放的可能性。减排可归因于相关的技术进步，特别是航行性能和港口靠泊的改善，可以实现更高的效率和更低的航行速度波动。情景建模方法首先基于能源政策和使用以及船舶运营的可预见发展而建立。随后，2020年至2050年在全球五个主要港口进行评估，即上海、新加坡、长滩、汉堡、东京。将结果与有人驾驶船舶的相应预测进行比较，以确定随着自动驾驶船舶逐渐纳入舰队的概率减排。总体而言，结果为决策者、船东和航运业提供了对自主航运未来环境效益的更好理解。