ABSTRACT

Spatio-temporal modelling of land use allows an analysis of change considering socio-economic, ecological and biophysical factors. We developed a ‘spatially explicit’ model to simulate land use/cover change in the Calakmul realm during the Late Classic period, taking into account the relationship between population density, agriculture strategies and erosion and drought. Different scenarios were simulated, combining agricultural systems, patterns of distribution of settlements, population densities and rainfall variability. The models showed that scenarios based on slash-and-burn agriculture only exhibit a collapse, with population densities much lower than those widely accepted by archaeologists. The simulation that implements a combination of slash-and-burn and intensive agriculture presents a population collapse around AD 860 in concordance with the records of the abandonment of the Maya Lowlands by the Terminal Classic. Spatially explicit land change models can be useful in reconstructing past environmental conditions and understanding the role of management practices and environmental change in the successes and failures of past societies.

摘要

土地利用的时空模型允许分析考虑社会经济、生态和生物物理因素的变化。我们开发了一个“空间显式”模型来模拟经典晚期 Calakmul 领域的土地利用/覆盖变化，同时考虑到人口密度、农业战略以及侵蚀和干旱之间的关系。模拟了不同的情景，结合了农业系统、定居点分布模式、人口密度和降雨变化。模型表明，基于刀耕火种的农业情景只会出现崩溃，人口密度远低于考古学家广泛接受的情景。结合刀耕火种和集约化农业的模拟显示，公元 860 年左右人口崩溃，与 Terminal Classic 放弃玛雅低地的记录一致。空间明确的土地变化模型可用于重建过去的环境条件和理解管理实践和环境变化在过去社会的成功和失败中的作用。