Globally, more than half of all extracted materials are used to build and maintain material stocks. The United States of America (USA) is one of the largest global consumers of these materials. To assess the role of stocks for long-term material use in an affluent industrialized economy, we present an analysis of material use and stock accumulation for the USA from 1870 to 2100. On the basis of the dynamics of stocks and resulting end-of-life (EoL) outflows, we investigate stock-building material demand, waste management, and circular economy potentials and present two prospective scenarios until 2100 to highlight the long-term effect of stock-flow dynamics. From 1870 to 2017, we found continuous stock growth, which strongly decelerated after the 2007 crisis. Overall, 40% of historical domestic material consumption was used to build and maintain stocks. EoL outflows from stocks increased until 2017, about half of which were discarded as final waste. In both prospective scenarios to 2100, stock build-up and maintenance require material inputs larger than those used over the whole historical period. Stabilizing stocks near the current level could mitigate 23% of material demand compared to a return to pre-2007 stock growth. Stabilized stocks also result in stable EoL outflows after 2050, whereas ongoing stock growth makes outflows grow until 2080. Increased recycling of these EoL outflows could potentially cover for large parts of material requirements for maintaining stable future stocks. Limiting demand for stocks and increasing recycling will require targeted demand-side policies, adjustments to EoL management, and the establishment of recycling industries within the USA. This article met the requirements for a gold–gold JIE data openness badge described at http://jie.click/badges.

中文翻译：

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1870 年至 2100 年美利坚合众国用于自然资源利用的社会经济材料库存的作用

在全球范围内，超过一半的提取材料用于建造和维护材料库存。美利坚合众国 (USA) 是这些材料的全球最大消费国之一。为了评估长期物质使用的库存在富裕工业化经济中的作用，我们对美国从 1870 年到 2100 年的物质使用和库存积累进行了分析。基于库存动态和由此产生的生命 (EoL) 流出，我们调查了库存建筑材料需求、废物管理和循环经济潜力，并提出了到 2100 年的两种前瞻性情景，以突出库存流动动态的长期影响。从 1870 年到 2017 年，我们发现存量持续增长，在 2007 年危机后大幅减速。全面的，40% 的历史国内材料消耗用于建立和维持库存。直到 2017 年，库存的 EoL 流出量增加，其中约一半被作为最终废物丢弃。在到 2100 年的两种预期情景中，库存积累和维护需要的材料投入大于整个历史时期使用的投入。与 2007 年前的库存增长相比，将库存稳定在当前水平附近可以减轻 23% 的材料需求。稳定的库存还会导致 2050 年后稳定的 EoL 流出，而持续的库存增长使流出量增长到 2080 年。这些 EoL 流出物的循环利用增加可能满足维持稳定未来库存的大部分材料需求。限制库存需求和增加回收将需要有针对性的需求方政策，调整 EoL 管理，并在美国建立回收行业。这篇文章符合金-金的要求JIE数据开放徽章在 http://jie.click/badges 中描述。