The paper investigates the effect that subnational networks of immigrants and emigrants had on exports from Spanish provinces (NUTS3) over the period of 2007–2016 by integrating state-of-the-art advances in the gravity model literature. In particular, it allows for heterogeneity in provincial export capacity, which significantly reduces pro-export effects, and select the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood as the most suitable estimator according to diagnostic tests. When both immigration and emigration are instrumented, the pro-export effect of immigrants found by previous studies vanishes and that of emigrants, instead, appears appreciable. The results obtained suggest that over the period that encompasses the double-deep crisis, immigrants did not show significant information and enforcement effects in the considered context, while the effects of emigrant demand for home-country goods may have been important. The prevalence of emigrant over immigrant effects appears attributable to a change in the composition of the migration stocks over the considered period of crisis.

本文通过整合重力模型文献中的最新进展，调查了 2007 年至 2016 年期间移民和移民网络对西班牙各省 (NUTS3) 出口的影响。特别是，它允许省级出口能力的异质性，这显着降低了亲出口效应，并根据诊断测试选择泊松伪最大似然作为最合适的估计量。当移民和移民都被测量时，先前研究发现的移民的出口效应消失了，而移民的出口效应似乎是可观的。获得的结果表明，在包含双重深度危机的时期内，移民在所考虑的背景下没有表现出显着的信息和执法效果，而移民对本国商品的需求的影响可能很重要。移民对移民影响的普遍性似乎可归因于所考虑的危机时期移民存量构成的变化。