Life-course studies have shown that early-life conditions predict health and socio-economic status in adult life. This study analyzes whether experiencing a traumatic event in childhood, i.e., the Second World War (WW2), affects subjective survival probabilities (SSPs). We rely on a representative sample of European adults who were differentially exposed to WW2 during childhood as a result of their date and place of birth. Results show that exposure to WW2 increases SSPs, with socio-economic and health characteristics not playing a mediating role. War exposure also counterbalances the adverse effects of health impairments on SSPs, but it does not affect health outcomes per se. This fact, jointly with low mortality rates of the cohort under investigation, suggests that selective mortality and post-traumatic stress are not the main channels. Instead, the results support the hypothesis that personal growth and life appreciation emerge after traumatic events, thereby leading to optimistic perceptions of longevity.

生命历程研究表明，早期生活状况可预测成年后的健康和社会经济状况。本研究分析了童年时期经历的创伤事件，即第二次世界大战 (WW2)，是否会影响主观生存概率 (SSP)。我们依赖于欧洲成年人的代表性样本，他们在童年时期因出生日期和地点而不同地暴露于 WW2。结果表明，暴露于 WW2 会增加 SSP，但社会经济和健康特征没有起到中介作用。战争暴露也抵消了健康损害对 SSP 的不利影响，但它本身并不影响健康结果。这一事实，加上受调查人群的低死亡率，表明选择性死亡率和创伤后压力不是主要渠道。反而，