This research analyzes the convergence of the world’s inflation rates, spanning 98 countries during the 1970–2016 period. Compared to previous studies, this study’s contribution is its analysis of the convergence sequence of different countries from a nonlinear perspective and its examination of the factors influencing the convergence order. We find that most countries’ inflation rates tend to converge with one another, with the exceptions of Japan, Poland, Chile, Sweden, and Burundi. The results also show that the inflation levels of high-income countries converge faster to the mean value than those of low-income countries. We show that countries that have volatile inflation rates are more likely to converge earlier than other countries. The robust results of the econometric analysis show that countries with improving per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) levels and growing globalization levels are more prone to earlier convergence than countries with lower level per capita GDP values or lower globalization levels. The results demonstrate that most of the countries in the world conform to the law of one price, and the money illusion hypothesis is invalid in the long run.

这项研究分析了 1970 年至 2016 年期间全球 98 个国家的通货膨胀率的趋同。与以往的研究相比，本研究的贡献在于从非线性角度分析了不同国家的收敛顺序，并考察了影响收敛顺序的因素。我们发现，除日本、波兰、智利、瑞典和布隆迪外，大多数国家的通货膨胀率趋于趋同。结果还表明，高收入国家的通货膨胀水平比低收入国家的通货膨胀水平更快地向平均值收敛。我们表明，通货膨胀率不稳定的国家比其他国家更有可能更早地收敛。计量经济学分析的稳健结果表明，与人均 GDP 值水平较低或全球化水平较低的国家相比，人均国内生产总值 (GDP) 水平提高和全球化水平不断提高的国家更容易实现早期收敛。结果表明，世界上大多数国家都遵循一价定律，货币幻觉假说从长远来看是无效的。