Overview: Moore’s Law has driven innovation in computing for decades by providing a future target and set of expectations that drives innovation. In this paper, we study whether a similar law might be developed and prove useful in different fields—for example, in armaments. We find that it can be, if we develop a composite measure that incorporates several dimensions of merit. We call this a figure of regularity (FoR). We use this case study of armaments to develop a generalizable model and find that it fits well with historical data. We then apply the model to estimate expected capabilities that will be required in 2050. A similar approach can be used in other industries to create a quantitative view of future capabilities, which companies can use to make long-term R&D investment decisions.

概述：几十年来，摩尔定律通过提供推动创新的未来目标和期望来推动计算创新。在本文中，我们研究是否可以制定类似的法律并证明其在不同领域（例如军备）有用。我们发现，如果我们开发一个综合衡量标准，它包含了几个维度的优点，那么它是可以的。我们称其为规律性图 (FoR)。我们使用这个军备案例研究来开发一个可推广的模型，并发现它与历史数据非常吻合。然后，我们应用该模型来估计 2050 年所需的预期能力。类似的方法可用于其他行业，以创建未来能力的量化视图，公司可使用该视图来做出长期研发投资决策。