Abstract

We implement a new survey of firms, focusing on their higher-order macroeconomic expectations. The survey provides a novel set of stylized facts regarding the relationship between first-order and higher-order expectations of economic agents, including how they adjust their beliefs in response to a variety of information treatments. We show how these facts can be used to calibrate key parameters of noisy-information models with infinite regress as well as to test predictions made by this class of models. We also consider a range of extensions to the basic noisy-information model that can potentially better reconcile theory and empirics. Although some extensions like level-k thinking are unsuccessful, incorporating heterogeneous long-run priors can address the empirical shortcomings of the basic noisy-information model.

中文翻译：

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你知道我知道你知道吗……？调查数据中的高阶信念*

摘要

我们对公司进行了一项新调查，重点关注其更高阶的宏观经济预期。该调查提供了一组新颖的程式化事实，涉及经济主体的一阶和高阶预期之间的关系，包括他们如何调整自己的信念以应对各种信息处理。我们展示了如何使用这些事实来校准具有无限回归的噪声信息模型的关键参数以及测试此类模型所做的预测。我们还考虑了对基本噪声信息模型的一系列扩展，这些模型可以更好地协调理论和经验。虽然一些扩展如 level- k 思考是不成功的，结合异构的长期先验可以解决基本噪声信息模型的经验缺陷。