The human population dynamic in the North of Neuquén is characterized by well-documented seasonal transhumance movements, although the routes that connect lowland and upland areas as well as the factors influencing their selection remain largely unknown. In this study, we compare movement routes between lowlands and upland pastures in Tromen massif as described in interviews and participatory mapping with local herders with routes modelled by least cost paths (LCPs) on several cost surfaces based on Ensemble Distribution Modelling (EDM). Altitude and vegetation (cover and productivity) are two of the most important variables contributing to the potential for movement across the landscape. The LCPs calculated using the inverse of EDM surface – which mainly represents the contribution of altitude, distance to permanent rivers, and vegetation – display a good concordance with the ethnographic routes. Conversely, neither the LCPs estimated from a traditional multi-cost surface nor the LCPs based on each of three main variables separately predicted appropriately the location of the ethnographic routes. We showed that a modelling approach can contribute to a deeper understanding of the practice of transhumance in North Neuquén.

内乌肯北部的人口动态以有据可查的季节性迁徙运动为特征，尽管连接低地和高地地区的路线以及影响它们选择的因素在很大程度上仍然未知。在这项研究中，我们比较了特罗门群岛低地和高地牧场之间的运动路线，如访谈中所述，以及与当地牧民的参与式制图，路线由基于集成分布模型 (EDM) 的几个成本表面上的最低成本路径 (LCP) 建模。海拔和植被（覆盖和生产力）是影响整个景观移动潜力的两个最重要的变量。使用 EDM 表面的倒数计算的 LCP - 主要代表海拔高度、与永久河流的距离、和植被 - 与民族志路线显示出良好的一致性。相反，无论是从传统的多成本表面估计的 LCP 还是基于三个主要变量中的每一个的 LCP，都不能分别适当地预测人种学路线的位置。我们表明，建模方法有助于更深入地了解北内乌肯的迁徙实践。