Long-term prediction parameters of polar motion (PM) with high precision have an important significance in understanding Earth geophysical processes in the future. The multilayer perceptron (MLP) is introduced into PM prediction and we try for the first time to combine MLP with autoregressive moving average model (ARMA) and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) for the mid-long-term prediction of PM. The principal components of PM were extracted and predicted by SSA first. Then, the combined MLP and ARMA were used to predict the residual term. The PM predictions were obtained by adding the principal components and the residual predictions. Applying this proposed method, 157 500-day and 12 5-year lead time predictions of PM were made based on IERS 14 C04 product. The results showed that the proposed method performed well in the mid-long-term period of PM predictions, which was superior to IERS Bulletin A.

高精度的极地运动（PM）长期预测参数对于理解未来地球地球物理过程具有重要意义。多层感知器（MLP）被引入 PM 预测，我们首次尝试将 MLP 与自回归移动平均模型（ARMA）和奇异谱分析（SSA）相结合，用于 PM 的中长期预测。PM的主成分首先由SSA提取和预测。然后，组合的 MLP 和 ARMA 用于预测残差项。PM 预测是通过添加主成分和残差预测获得的。应用这种建议的方法，基于 IERS 14 C04 产品进行了 157 500 天和 12 5 年的 PM 提前期预测。