Background

This study aimed to determine whether crime patterns in Mexico City changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and to test whether any changes observed were associated with the disruption of routine activities, as measured by changes in public transport passenger numbers.

Method

The first objective was assessed by comparing the observed incidence of crime after the COVID-19 pandemic was detected in the country with that expected based on ARIMA forecasts based on the pre-pandemic trends. The second objective was assessed by examining the association between crime incidence and the number of passengers on public transport using regressions with ARIMA errors.

Results

Results indicated that most crime categories decreased significantly after the pandemic was detected in the country or after a national lockdown was instituted. Furthermore, the study found that some of the declines observed were associated with the reductions seen in public transport passenger numbers. However, the findings suggested that the changes in mobility explain part of the declines observed, with important variations per crime type.

Conclusion

The findings contribute to the global evaluation of the effects of COVID-19 on crime and propose a robust method to explicitly test whether the changes observed are associated with changes in routine activities.

中文翻译：

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犯罪和 COVID-19：墨西哥城日常活动变化的影响

 背景

本研究旨在确定墨西哥城的犯罪模式是否因 COVID-19 大流行而发生变化，并测试观察到的任何变化是否与日常活动的中断有关（通过公共交通乘客数量的变化来衡量）。

 方法

第一个目标是通过比较该国发现 COVID-19 大流行后观察到的犯罪发生率与基于大流行前趋势的 ARIMA 预测的预期犯罪率来评估的。第二个目标是通过使用 ARIMA 误差回归检查犯罪率与公共交通乘客数量之间的关联来评估的。

 结果

结果表明，在该国发现疫情或实施全国封锁后，大多数犯罪类别显着下降。此外，研究发现，观察到的一些下降与公共交通乘客数量的减少有关。然而，研究结果表明，流动性的变化解释了所观察到的部分下降，每种犯罪类型都有很大的差异。

 结论

这些发现有助于对 COVID-19 对犯罪的影响进行全球评估，并提出了一种强有力的方法来明确测试观察到的变化是否与日常活动的变化相关。