The existing empirical evidence suggests a reduction in aggregate crime as a consequence of the COVID-19 lockdown. However, what happens when lockdown measures are relaxed? This paper considers how the COVID-19 pandemic affects crime rates throughout Mexico when the stay-at-home orders end. We use national crime data from Mexico’s National Public Security System, which reports municipality-level rates on assault & battery, theft & property crime, fraud, drug crimes & extortion, and homicides. Our results show that the majority of crimes follow a U-shaped trend—when the lockdown ends—crimes rise back to pre-pandemic levels.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 期间的 U 型犯罪复苏：来自墨西哥全国犯罪率的证据

现有的经验证据表明，由于 COVID-19 封锁，犯罪总量有所减少。然而，当封锁措施放松时会发生什么？本文探讨了居家令结束后，COVID-19 大流行如何影响整个墨西哥的犯罪率。我们使用墨西哥国家公共安全系统的国家犯罪数据，该系统报告各市级袭击和殴打、盗窃和财产犯罪、欺诈、毒品犯罪和勒索以及凶杀等犯罪率。我们的研究结果显示，大多数犯罪行为遵循 U 形趋势——当封锁结束时，犯罪行为会回升到大流行前的水平。