Meeting human needs at sustainable levels of energy use is fundamental for avoiding catastrophic climate change and securing the well-being of all people. In the current political-economic regime, no country does so. Here, we assess which socio-economic conditions might enable societies to satisfy human needs at low energy use, to reconcile human well-being with climate mitigation.

Using a novel analytical framework alongside a novel multivariate regression-based moderation approach and data for 106 countries, we analyse how the relationship between energy use and six dimensions of human need satisfaction varies with a wide range of socio-economic factors relevant to the provisioning of goods and services ('provisioning factors'). We find that factors such as public service quality, income equality, democracy, and electricity access are associated with higher need satisfaction and lower energy requirements (‘beneficial provisioning factors’). Conversely, extractivism and economic growth beyond moderate levels of affluence are associated with lower need satisfaction and greater energy requirements (‘detrimental provisioning factors’). Our results suggest that improving beneficial provisioning factors and abandoning detrimental ones could enable countries to provide sufficient need satisfaction at much lower, ecologically sustainable levels of energy use.

However, as key pillars of the required changes in provisioning run contrary to the dominant political-economic regime, a broader transformation of the economic system may be required to prioritise, and organise provisioning for, the satisfaction of human needs at low energy use.

在可持续的能源使用水平上满足人类需求对于避免灾难性气候变化和确保所有人的福祉至关重要。在当前的政治经济体制下，没有一个国家这样做。在这里，我们评估哪些社会经济条件可能使社会能够在低能源使用情况下满足人类需求，以协调人类福祉与减缓气候变化。

使用新的分析框架以及基于多元回归的新的调节方法和 106 个国家的数据，我们分析了能源使用与人类需求满足的六个维度之间的关系如何随与提供服务相关的广泛社会经济因素而变化。商品和服务（“供应因素”）。我们发现公共服务质量、收入平等、民主和电力供应等因素与更高的需求满足和更低的能源需求（“有益供给因素”）相关。相反，超出中等富裕水平的采掘主义和经济增长与较低的需求满足和较高的能源需求（“有害供给因素”）相关。

然而，由于供应所需变化的关键支柱与占主导地位的政治经济体制背道而驰，因此可能需要对经济体系进行更广泛的转型，以优先考虑并组织供应，以满足低能耗下的人类需求。