Previous research has shown that people who endorse conspiracy theories are more prone to the conjunction fallacy: the tendency to perceive conjunct events as more probable than constituent events. The present study examined the relationship between specific beliefs (belief in conspiracy theories, religiosity) and the susceptibility to conjunction errors (CEs) in specific domains. A total of 500 participants was presented with brief scenarios from the domains “coronavirus conspiracy,” “miraculous healing,” and a control condition. Each scenario included one statement about a separate event and a second statement about two joint events co-occurring. The participants estimated the probability of each statement. Results showed that the number of CEs made in the coronavirus domain was only associated with the belief in conspiracy theories, while general religiosity was only associated with CEs for scenarios describing miraculous healings. The assessed beliefs were not associated with CEs made in the control condition. Results suggest that distinct beliefs are uniquely associated with the susceptibility to conjunction errors in particular domains.

中文翻译：

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对冠状病毒阴谋论、奇迹的信仰与合取谬误的敏感性之间的关联


先前的研究表明，支持阴谋论的人更容易犯联合谬误：倾向于认为联合事件比组成事件更有可能发生。本研究考察了特定信仰（对阴谋论的信仰、宗教信仰）与特定领域对合取错误（CE）的敏感性之间的关系。总共 500 名参与者收到了来自“冠状病毒阴谋”、“奇迹般的治愈”和控制条件等领域的简短场景。每个场景都包含一个关于单独事件的陈述和关于同时发生的两个联合事件的第二个陈述。参与者估计每个陈述的概率。结果显示，冠状病毒领域的 CE 数量仅与阴谋论信仰相关，而一般宗教信仰仅与描述奇迹治愈场景的 CE 相关。评估的信念与控制条件下做出的 CE 无关。结果表明，不同的信念与特定领域的合取错误的敏感性有着独特的关联。