Previous research has shown that people who endorse conspiracy theories are more prone to the conjunction fallacy: the tendency to perceive conjunct events as more probable than constituent events. The present study examined the relationship between specific beliefs (belief in conspiracy theories, religiosity) and the susceptibility to conjunction errors (CEs) in specific domains. A total of 500 participants was presented with brief scenarios from the domains “coronavirus conspiracy,” “miraculous healing,” and a control condition. Each scenario included one statement about a separate event and a second statement about two joint events co-occurring. The participants estimated the probability of each statement. Results showed that the number of CEs made in the coronavirus domain was only associated with the belief in conspiracy theories, while general religiosity was only associated with CEs for scenarios describing miraculous healings. The assessed beliefs were not associated with CEs made in the control condition. Results suggest that distinct beliefs are uniquely associated with the susceptibility to conjunction errors in particular domains.

中文翻译：

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对冠状病毒阴谋论、奇迹的信念与联合谬误的易感性之间的关联

先前的研究表明，支持阴谋论的人更容易出现联合谬误：倾向于认为联合事件比构成事件更有可能发生。本研究考察了特定信仰（对阴谋论的信仰、宗教信仰）与特定领域中的关联错误 (CE) 的易感性之间的关系。向总共 500 名参与者展示了来自“冠状病毒阴谋”、“奇迹般的治愈”和控制条件领域的简短场景。每个场景包括一个关于单独事件的陈述和关于同时发生的两个联合事件的第二个陈述。参与者估计了每个陈述的概率。结果表明，在冠状病毒领域制造的 CE 数量仅与相信阴谋论有关，而一般的宗教信仰仅与描述奇迹般愈合的场景的 CE 相关。评估的信念与控制条件下的 CE 无关。结果表明，不同的信念与特定领域中对连接错误的敏感性唯一相关。