The simulated experiment of A. parasiticus isolated from the paddy was carried out during the paddy storage for 20 days. The growth and mycotoxin data were collected for constructing kinetic and probability models of moulds. The Baranyi and Gompertz model was employed as the primary model and estimated the lag phase and maximum specific growth rate. Secondary models, such as polynomial, Davey and Gibson model were used and completely evaluated under different conditions. The polynomial equation was highly rated compared with Gibson and Davey model and gave realistic temperatures and a_w for mould growth. Logistic model showed promising results on the prediction of growth boundary and AFB₁ production. Employed models showed promising predicted results, indicating that it is an effective tool for describing and predicting the growth of moulds under different temperatures and a_w. The results can be applied to develop the optimal strategy to prevent fungal spoilage and aflatoxin production during paddy storage.

从稻田中分离出寄生线虫的模拟试验是在稻谷贮藏20天的过程中进行的。收集生长和霉菌毒素数据以构建霉菌的动力学和概率模型。Baranyi 和 Gompertz 模型被用作主要模型并估计滞后期和最大比增长率。使用多项式、Davey 和 Gibson 模型等二次模型，并在不同条件下进行完整评估。与 Gibson 和 Davey 模型相比，多项式方程得到了很高的评价，并给出了真实的温度和霉菌生长的_w。Logistic 模型在预测生长边界和 AFB _{1 方面}显示出有希望的结果生产。就业模型显示有希望的预测结果，这表明它是用于描述和不同的温度，并在预测霉菌的生长的有效工具一_瓦特。结果可用于制定最佳策略，以防止稻谷储存期间真菌腐败和黄曲霉毒素的产生。